Thursday, October 26, 2017

Pacers Pace

The Pacers grabbed the attention of NBA fans everywhere when they scored 140 points in their season opener. The game was the fastest pace since 2008, per Michael Pina. Will the Pacers continue to play fast? Why are they pushing the tempo this year?

Nate McMillan said that the Indiana Pacers would play a faster pace in the 2017-2018 season. They pushed the tempo slightly more in the preseason, but there was no sign of the Pacers playing at a pace well over 100 possessions per game. Through five games, the Pacers have a pace over 104 per game. That's good enough for sixth in the league early in the season.

Heading into a new season, nearly every team from high school to the NBA says that they are going to play faster than the year before. Those promises are usually out of the window by the second game. Judging by McMillan's track record, that would have been a good bet about the 2017-2018 Pacers as well. In 13 years as a head coach, McMillan's teams had an average rank for pace of 24th in the league. Last season was the fastest any of his teams have played with a pace of 95.9 possessions per game.

Why will this year be different for the Pacers?

Larry Bird wanted the Pacers to play at a higher pace for a few years. He wanted to catch up to the evolution of the league in terms of pace, shooting and spacing. Despite Bird's yearning, the Pacers did not move towards an uptempo until this season.

Is the roster behind the philosophy change?

The addition of Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison in the offseason could be the reason why Nate McMillan decided to push the tempo more. Is the overall roster actually better for running though? Myles Turner is a good runner for a center. Oladipo and Collison are better in transition than in the half court. But Jeff Teague is an athletic guard that pushes the tempo well. Paul George played well in transition. The Pacers aren't a young team. Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, TJ Leaf and Myles Turner are the only players under 26 years old that have played so far. Overall, there isn't a huge change in the roster makeup.

One change that has helped the tempo is Domantas Sabonis. He isn't a player that thrives in transition but he's a good outlet passer. The Pacers are doing a good job of pushing the ball off of misses. The Pacers have been average in forcing and scoring off turnovers. They are attacking after getting defensive rebounds. According to cleaningtheglass.com, the Pacers are turning 52% of their rebounds into transition plays. That's fourth in the league to this point. It is easy to see that pushing the ball after defensive rebounds is a major emphasis for the Pacers so far this season.

A benefit of pushing defensive rebounds into transition is making opponents back off the offensive glass. Pacer opponents are getting a smaller percentage of offensive rebounds than they did last season. If opposing teams crash the offensive glass, it will open up transition opportunities. With the Pacers getting out in transition off of rebounds, teams will send fewer players to the offensive glass.

Are there other reasons that the Pacers should push the tempo?

The first thing that came to mind when the Pacers posted 140 points on opening night was that the Pacers wanted to inflate numbers. The league looks at pace adjusted numbers more than ever but teams still fall in the trap of volume numbers. If the Pacers are pushing the pace, players will post good or better volume numbers. Those volume numbers could help get a better draft pick than warranted in a potential trade.

Inflating numbers is likely low on the list of why the Pacers are playing fast this season. It can't be completely overlooked, especially with the Pacers likely towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Helping the trade value of the roster could be helpful come draft time.

Will the Pacers maintain a pace over 100 possessions per game?

It doesn't seem like 105 or more is likely for a team like the Pacers. 102 seems reasonable. That would be a major increase from the 2016-2017 season. 102 is a very fast pace but teams are playing at a faster tempo than any time in the last 25 years. A top 10 ranking in pace is quite possible.

If the Pacers continue to play at a pace over 100, there are a few things to watch as the season develops. Will the tempo fatigue the roster? Fatigue leads to injuries. That's something the Pacers will have to watch closely. Fatigue later in the season could lead to poor shooting as well.

It will be interesting to see this experiment by the Pacers and Nate McMillan. Will it last the entire season? Will the results remain high as the season gets longer? I can't wait to see how this plays out.

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