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| Alec Peters (Photo: Valpoathletics.com) |
Alec Peters of Valparaiso University nearly declared for the NBA Draft after his junior season. He is back for his final run in a Crusaders uniform, though. He will be the mid-major draft prospect that everyone compares to Doug McDermott or Kyle Korver. Here are my thoughts on Alec Peters prior to his senior year.
Strengths
· Spot-Up Shooting
o Quick Release
o As accurate and consistent as anyone from three-point range
o His corner shooting would translate immediately to the NBA
· Shot Selection
o Never took bad/contested shots as a junior
o Every shot was under controlled and measured
o Rarely took a shot outside of the paint with a hand in his face
· Finishing on the move around the paint
o Does a really good job with his left hand on the move
o His touch is really good with either hand
· Posting up/sealing
o Definitely not afraid of contact
o Does a good job of getting position especially against smaller opponents
Weaknesses
· Athleticism
o Speed up and down the floor
o Explosiveness/lift around the basket
· Creating Off Dribble
o .483 PPP when shooting off the dribble
o Inconsistent in the mid-range when attacking close outs
· Didn’t have to hit many contested shots
o Most of his shots as a junior will not occur in the NBA
o Teams routinely gave him space and he made them pay
o The adjustment to NBA defense will be a major one
· Finishing with his back to basket
o Takes too long to get his shot off
o Can’t finish over defenders
· Lateral Quickness
o No chance of guarding or even containing NBA small forwards off the dribble
o Most power forwards at the NBA will have a major quickness advantage
Physical
The biggest questions about Alec Peters producing in the NBA start with his physical tools. Peters was measured at the Nike Basketball Academy in 2016 with a height of 6’8.5” in shoes and a wingspan of 6’9”. The average NBA power forward is 6’9.4” in shoes with a wingspan of 7’1.2” which means Peters is really undersized for that position. He would be a bigger than average small forward, but he has no chance of defending small forwards. The combination of his lack of size, for the power forward position, and quickness puts Peters in a tough spot. Nearly every NBA team wants to switch every screen on the perimeter to take away three-point attempts. Peters would be at a huge disadvantage after he switched. He would need a high-level rim protector behind him.
Peters has the frame to defend power forwards in the post. He’s around 235 entering his senior year. He’ll have enough bulk to hold his ground against most 4’s in the paint. Post defense has a lot to do with taking away position and angles. Peters can do those things to make it tough on opponents.
Offense
Offense is undoubtedly the bright spot for Peters. The shooting numbers have always been there for Peters as he had a True Shooting Percentage of 61% as a freshman. That number has continued to improve even with defenses focusing on him more and more. As a junior, Peters shot 44% from three-point range. That is why he is an NBA prospect.
It might take Peters some time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game and the extra distance from three, but Peters will be able to shoot well enough to be a specialist in the NBA.
Peters is not going to be creating off the dribble in the NBA. Most of his driving attempts at the college level are when the defense overextends on close outs. He’ll have those situations in the NBA as well, but he won’t be looking to get to the paint very often at the next level. He’ll be looking to shot fake and pull up after one hard dribble. He has not demonstrated to be a very good shooter off the dribble. Peters only scored 0.483 points per possession when he attempted a shot off the dribble.
If a team does extra small, Peters would have the ability to post up. His footwork and technique are strong when sealing and getting position on the block. He doesn’t do a great job of finishing over the top of defenders. Peters was pretty good at drawing fouls when playing in the post, though.
He’s an average to below average passer. He only had an assist rate of 9.0% last season and a career rate of 9.8%. Compare that to his turnover rate of 10.8% last year and 11.7% for his career. He’s not doing much of either.
Defense
Defense is definitely going to be a challenge for Peters. Who can he match up with? Can he keep an NBA guard from blowing by him in ball screen actions? Can he hold his own in the post? In these areas, Peters is fighting an uphill battle. If he can shoot 45% from three-point range, his shortcomings might be overlooked in short stints.
His advanced stat rebounding rates are solid. He had an offensive rebound rate of 8.8% with a defensive rate registering at 19.5%. Those are decent rates, not great, not bad.
He doesn’t bring anything to the table in terms of steals or blocks. That is usually an indication that he will struggle at the next level on defense.
He did a poor job of getting over and around screens as a junior. If he is playing the 4 spot, that really isn’t a concern in the NBA. It does exemplify the difficulty that he has keeping up with athletes and moving his hips around screens.
Summary
Alec Peters is going to get a lot of media attention – at least for a mid-major player – this season. He likely will put up monster numbers. Although his points will likely be gaudy, it is his shooting that is most important. His percentages might drop since he will have a bigger scoring burden this season for Valparaiso with Keith Carter gone. The difficulty of his shots will likely increase, so a minor dip in his three-point percentage will not be alarming.
Does he have a role in the NBA? He definitely has a chance to be a three-point specialist. If he was two inches taller, there would be no doubt that he could make it as a three-point shooting, power forward. I’m scared of his defensive ability or lack thereof.
DraftExpress has Peters slotted as the 43rd pick in the 2017 Draft right now. I think that is a bit on the high side. 45-60 is definitely a possibility. Peters is a fringe roster player at the NBA level, in my eyes. With players like that, the system, coach and roster makeup of their first team determine if they stick in the NBA or bounce out. He would be an excellent player in a league like the ACB.
