Wednesday, March 28, 2018

2018 McDonald's All-American Scrimmage Notes


Notes from the 2018 McDonald’s All-American scrimmage. It is typically more game-like than the actual McDonald’s All-American game. Many of these players will be in the 2019 NBA Draft.



Romeo Langford – in a  defensive stance throughout the game and had a help side block at the rim. Drive and finish against two defenders with size and length like he was playing against normal high school kids. Hesitation move off the ball screen. He will always be able to score off the dribble. Active on the boards. He was focused on defending throughout the scrimmage. He needs to work on his second effort on the defensive end – when he gets screened, an opponent gets a step, etc. – to be a plus defender at the NBA level.



Nassir Little – wasn’t overly productive in the scrimmage. He was best as a rebounder then pushing the ball on his own. He has great open court speed for a forward. Pretty good handles as well.



Naz Reid – had drive through traffic and finish with a finger roll. Reid is a big-bodied power forward that isn’t the most explosive athlete. He’ll need to play hard and improve as a shooter to stick in the NBA.



Moses Brown – seven-footer with methodical moves in the post. Has to gather to finish at the basket because of a lack of explosion/strength. Was best as a shot blocker and offensive rebounder.



Zion Williamson – Strong rebound in traffic then pushed the ball. He doesn’t have great open court speed for a wing/forward. He’ll thrive as a rebounder and in transition. Will need to become a consistent shooter to be a star in the NBA.



EJ Montgomery – didn’t stand out. He had a post shot thrown back at him by Reggie Perry because he didn’t create any space.



Keldon Johnson – blow by driving going left then finished. He’s a true wing with his athleticism and slashing ability. Not afraid to be physical on the defensive end. Shooting consistency will be big for him at the highest levels.



Darius Garland – in a defensive stance but then taken out by a screen. Shot the first time he touched it on multiple possessions. Reluctant passer when he can shoot but will make a good pass, especially if it leads to a highlight. Tough step back over a defender with length. I don’t mind him being a score-first point guard, but he will need to either be really good defensively or an elite shooter.



Immanuel Quickley – didn’t stand out. He’s a plus defender but not elite. He didn’t create off the dribble at all then his outside shots were off the mark. Could thrive as an outside shooter, distributor and solid defender in a solid system. He isn’t going to create much for himself or teammates in the half court.


Tre Jones – moving the ball early, doesn’t let himself get screened. Transition pull-up. Solid showing in the scrimmage.



Quentin Grimes – was able to get to the basket a couple times. He’s best when he gets all the way to the rim. He has struggled with his outside shot throughout his high school career. He’s a solid passer, but doesn’t have the blow by speed to consistently draw two defenders. Really needs to improve as a shooter.



Reggie Perry – NBA build and frame, shot needs work from 3, strong hands for rebounds in traffic. Not shifty but should be a good PF going forward with his bounce and strength.



Cam Reddish – Didn’t turn the corner off the dribble early. Got low and turned it for a dunk in the second half. Quick drive and two-foot floater. Has all the tools to be a great NBA player. His motor is his biggest question mark.



RJ Barrett – Was very good in the scrimmage. Handled the ball some, finished above the rim, hit a 3 off of a ball-screen going left, jab step mid-range over defender.



Devon Dotson – supreme athlete, solid 6-3+, pure shooting release, getting over screens. I was very impressed with his athleticism and effort on the defensive end. Also drilled a couple of mid-range shots off the dribble.



Jahvon Quinerly – undersized in height and build, but very active defensively and changes pace really well on the offensive end. He’ll be a fun player to watch, especially once he puts on muscle.



Darius Bazley – he’s frame is so slight, it was hard for him to produce against the elite competition. He definitely fit in with his athleticism.



Coby White – stood out with this athleticism and always being in the highest gear. Deep range with his outside shot.



Jalen Smith – offensive rebound, good footwork into a spin and finish. Length is insane, needs more lower body strength to finish quicker in traffic.



David McCormack – really strong but undersized as a center, especially for NBA. Needs to develop his outside shot to help offset his lack of size.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

St. Bonaventure Guards: Jaylen Adams & Matt Mobley

St. Bonaventure guards Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley didn’t have their usual performance against UCLA, but it is hard not to be impressed by the duo. Both players will have a chance to earn money playing professionally.


Jaylen Adams has been a big-time scorer for St. Bonaventure for the last three years. His production and efficiency have been great. For his career, Adams has a 61% True Shooting %. St. Bonaventure won more than 20 games in each of the three seasons of Adams scoring at a high level. Those things go hand-in-hand.


Adams is a near elite level shooter with a solid assist to turnover ratio. He also racks up good steal numbers. Those things point to Adams having a good basketball IQ. His numbers also suggest that he will likely continue to improve throughout his playing career.


Adams isn’t the biggest lead guard at 6-foot-1. That will be a slight knock against him for finding a roster spot in the NBA. He does have good feet and decent strength, though. Add those attributes to his feel and awareness, Adams has a chance to be an NBA rotation player.


In order to make it at the game’s highest level, Adams will have be a great outside shooter, excellent passer and, at least, a decent defender. He’s not far from being a great or elite shooter. He shot 39.6% on 6.3 three-point attempts per game for his college career. On top of that, he was an 83.7% free throw shooter. If he takes a step forward with his shooting, Jaylen Adams is a candidate to make a roster. For his career, Adams averaged 5.4 assists and 2.8 turnovers per game. He averaged 6.5 assists per game as a junior. If anyone saw his behind the back pass after driving to the basket against UCLA, he has a flare for passing. Although he is an average to below average defender overall, Adams averaged 1.6 steals per game for his career. There is some potential for him as a defender.


One of the biggest things that caught my eye in the UCLA game was Adams not letting his poor shooting deter the rest of his game. Aaron Holiday had a snowball of errors down the stretch because he knew he had to make plays and then make up for those errors that he committed while trying to make plays. While Holiday had a litany of errors, Adams took care of the ball and didn’t force plays. Despite being 1-15 from the field, he hit the big shot late in the game then put it out of reach with his foul shooting. It was extremely impressive from a mental toughness and awareness standpoint. Working through errors and failures is a big part of succeeding at the highest level.


Matt Mobley projects more as an overseas prospect or G-League prospect. He’s more of a shooting guard or combo than lead guard. At 6-2/6-3, he is very undersized for those positions in the NBA. At a lower professional level, he could excel. 


Mobley has developed into being a good three-point shooter after being a poor shooter as a freshman and below average as a sophomore. He ended up shooting 38% on 8.3 three-point attempts per game as a senior. That suggests that his shooting is no fluke. He isn’t cherry-picking the best outside shots if he is taking over eight per contest.


Other than being a good shooter and a guard that doesn’t turn the ball over, Mobley doesn’t project well to the NBA. He’s not a very good defender, especially for the NBA level, and he doesn’t create for others. He would need to be fantastic in one of those areas to have a realistic chance of making the NBA.


Overseas or in the G-League, Mobley would be a good enough shooter and scorer to be a valuable roster player. He could likely take the ball-handling duties in spots for lead guards at those levels. Matt Mobley has a chance to make a living playing basketball, he will just need to find the right situation.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Pacers Pace

The Pacers grabbed the attention of NBA fans everywhere when they scored 140 points in their season opener. The game was the fastest pace since 2008, per Michael Pina. Will the Pacers continue to play fast? Why are they pushing the tempo this year?

Nate McMillan said that the Indiana Pacers would play a faster pace in the 2017-2018 season. They pushed the tempo slightly more in the preseason, but there was no sign of the Pacers playing at a pace well over 100 possessions per game. Through five games, the Pacers have a pace over 104 per game. That's good enough for sixth in the league early in the season.

Heading into a new season, nearly every team from high school to the NBA says that they are going to play faster than the year before. Those promises are usually out of the window by the second game. Judging by McMillan's track record, that would have been a good bet about the 2017-2018 Pacers as well. In 13 years as a head coach, McMillan's teams had an average rank for pace of 24th in the league. Last season was the fastest any of his teams have played with a pace of 95.9 possessions per game.

Why will this year be different for the Pacers?

Larry Bird wanted the Pacers to play at a higher pace for a few years. He wanted to catch up to the evolution of the league in terms of pace, shooting and spacing. Despite Bird's yearning, the Pacers did not move towards an uptempo until this season.

Is the roster behind the philosophy change?

The addition of Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison in the offseason could be the reason why Nate McMillan decided to push the tempo more. Is the overall roster actually better for running though? Myles Turner is a good runner for a center. Oladipo and Collison are better in transition than in the half court. But Jeff Teague is an athletic guard that pushes the tempo well. Paul George played well in transition. The Pacers aren't a young team. Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, TJ Leaf and Myles Turner are the only players under 26 years old that have played so far. Overall, there isn't a huge change in the roster makeup.

One change that has helped the tempo is Domantas Sabonis. He isn't a player that thrives in transition but he's a good outlet passer. The Pacers are doing a good job of pushing the ball off of misses. The Pacers have been average in forcing and scoring off turnovers. They are attacking after getting defensive rebounds. According to cleaningtheglass.com, the Pacers are turning 52% of their rebounds into transition plays. That's fourth in the league to this point. It is easy to see that pushing the ball after defensive rebounds is a major emphasis for the Pacers so far this season.

A benefit of pushing defensive rebounds into transition is making opponents back off the offensive glass. Pacer opponents are getting a smaller percentage of offensive rebounds than they did last season. If opposing teams crash the offensive glass, it will open up transition opportunities. With the Pacers getting out in transition off of rebounds, teams will send fewer players to the offensive glass.

Are there other reasons that the Pacers should push the tempo?

The first thing that came to mind when the Pacers posted 140 points on opening night was that the Pacers wanted to inflate numbers. The league looks at pace adjusted numbers more than ever but teams still fall in the trap of volume numbers. If the Pacers are pushing the pace, players will post good or better volume numbers. Those volume numbers could help get a better draft pick than warranted in a potential trade.

Inflating numbers is likely low on the list of why the Pacers are playing fast this season. It can't be completely overlooked, especially with the Pacers likely towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Helping the trade value of the roster could be helpful come draft time.

Will the Pacers maintain a pace over 100 possessions per game?

It doesn't seem like 105 or more is likely for a team like the Pacers. 102 seems reasonable. That would be a major increase from the 2016-2017 season. 102 is a very fast pace but teams are playing at a faster tempo than any time in the last 25 years. A top 10 ranking in pace is quite possible.

If the Pacers continue to play at a pace over 100, there are a few things to watch as the season develops. Will the tempo fatigue the roster? Fatigue leads to injuries. That's something the Pacers will have to watch closely. Fatigue later in the season could lead to poor shooting as well.

It will be interesting to see this experiment by the Pacers and Nate McMillan. Will it last the entire season? Will the results remain high as the season gets longer? I can't wait to see how this plays out.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Daum Good: Scouting Mike Daum's NBA Prospects

Mike Daum photo by sdsucollegian.com
Mike Daum is the best basketball player that fans don’t know. His production for South Dakota State has been incredible in the last year and half. Here is my scouting report on Mike Daum's strengths and weaknesses.





Strengths
·         Size for Position
o   Legitimate 6-9 from coaches that have faced him
o   Long arms – a reported 7-1 wingspan gives him the ability to make plays gathering
·         Footwork
o   Daum is fantastic in the post with pivots and drop-steps
o   Doesn’t get off balanced
o   Does a good job on screens
·         Shooting Consistency
o   43% on 109 three-pointers; 86% on 292 free throws
o   Shots seem to be on the mark on every attempt
·         Shooting Release
o   High shooting pocket and release. He doesn’t waste many movements
o   Quick since he doesn’t drop the ball down, he can get a shot off in a split second
o   Balanced. Whether he is spotting up, running to a spot or coming off a screen, Daum gets his feet set quickly
·         Sealing and positioning
o   Does a great job getting his front foot over the top of his defender
o   His quick feet, long arms and willingness to be physical doesn’t give much room to defenders
o   He understands angles and positioning with relation to the ball


Weaknesses
·         Turnovers
o   The main offensive weakness for Daum is his 16.7% turnover rate
o   Daum doesn’t handle traps that well – leads to travels and mishandling the ball
o   Losses the handle fairly frequently while attacking from the mid-range
·         Athleticism
o   Good but a not great athlete for NBA level
o   He jumps with ease and runs fairly well but won’t be in top 50 percentile in either category of NBA power forwards
o   Guarding on perimeter is going to be a struggle
o   Doesn’t elevate much when executing post moves
·         Defense
o   Low Block & Steal Rates
o   4 fouls per 40 minutes last year
§  High foul rate means the player isn’t moving well
§  Improving to 2.9 per 40 minutes this season



Physical
On TV, Mike Daum doesn’t look that big. He looks closer to 6-7 than 6-9, but a college coach that has faced him multiple times said he is a legit 6-foot-9. That’s a game-changer for the next level. He has a reported 7-foot-1 wingspan. That puts him on the short end of NBA power forwards but not giving up too much. Overall, Daum is a fair athlete that has quick feet in the post. His speed is below average but not terrible.


Offense
If Mike Daum carves out an NBA career, it will be because of his offensive skill set. That can be said about most players, but his offense need to be so good that it offsets his defensive liability by a decent margin. He has a complete offensive game. Daum is very good in the post. He seals and gets position at a high level. Daum is more than comfortable playing beyond the three-point line as well. His 43% shooting from beyond the arc proves that. Daum isn’t cherry picking wide open opportunities either. He can get off shots in a hurry with consistency.

His ability to post up contributes to the 8.6 fouls he draws per 40 minutes. Currently, that is ninth best in the country according to KenPom.com. Daum getting to the foul line is a nightmare for opposing coaches. Daum is shooting 92% from the free throw line this year. In my eyes, that confirms his 43% shooting from three isn’t a fluke.

The only spot that Daum shows weakness on the offensive end is turnovers. He has some struggles against double teams and traps. He has travelled a decent amount so far this season in those situations. He has also lost the ball while trying to dribble out of the traps. Daum usually does a good job of passing before the doubles come, though. Overall, he is a good passer.



Defense
There is no doubt that defense is a major concern for Mike Daum’s professional career. South Dakota State is playing a ton of zone, so Daum isn’t isolated one on one very often. He does not move well laterally, though. Slashers are often able to get by Daum in a straight line when attacking against him. He is active in the zone, but his closeouts are frequently long and late. He takes big strides to try to cover ground but that leaves him unable to breakdown and defend a drive. Daum is going to need to know angles and containment in order to make it in the NBA. That is very possible, he just needs to make the adjustments.

Daum doesn’t get many steals or blocks. That is a concern especially since South Dakota State isn’t playing a high level schedule. For the season, Daum is averaging about one block and one steal per 40 minutes of playing time. Those are very low numbers which usually means the player will be a major liability on defense at the NBA level.


Summary
I really like Mike Daum as a redshirt sophomore. He’s still only 21 years old. Daum will be about 21.5 years old when this year’s draft rolls along. I don’t think his draft stock will ever be higher than it will be this year. He could improve as a ball-handler and become an even better shooter in the next year or two, but that would also cut down on his upside for NBA teams. I’m not saying he should come out this year; I’m saying his stock will level off as his potential is exchanged for improvement.

It’s easy to envision Daum being a deadly shooter from the corner in the NBA while being able to play on the block as well. He’ll need to be paired with a shot blocker since he won’t be able to provide rim protection. The downside to Daum is that it will be struggle for him to switch on all perimeter screens which NBA teams like to do right now in order to stop three-point attempts.


Mike Daum’s shooting ability and all-around offensive game is worthy of a second round pick in my eyes. His shooting gives him a chance; his defense will be the deciding factor if he can stick in the league. He would fit really well in the top Euro basketball leagues with his shooting, passing and versatility. 

Thursday, October 13, 2016

OG Anunoby Preseason NBA Draft Report

OG Anunoby jumped onto the NBA Draft scene late last college basketball season. He nearly left after his freshman year at Indiana University despite playing limited minutes throughout his rookie campaign. The upside of Anunoby had the draft addicts going crazy. He’s back at IU for his sophomore year with major expectations. Here’s a preseason look at OG Anunoby’s NBA Draft scouting report.







Strengths
·         Athleticism
o   Fantastic leaper
o   Good speed in the open court
o   Above average lateral quickness
·         Offensive Rebounding
o   11.4% offensive rebounding rate
o   That rate is better than most centers in college basketball
o   Good hands plus effort and athleticism leads to a lot of offensive rebounds
·         Physical Tools
o   6’8” height with long arms
o   Good frame and strength
o   Will still be 19 years old at the next NBA Draft



Weaknesses
·         Awareness & Feel
o   Offense
§  Bad passes right to the defense
§  Multiple three-pointers blocked back into his face
§  1.5 assists per 40 minutes played
o   Defense
§  Caught ball watching or waiting for his man to catch it – not active away from the ball
§  Late reacting to screens and doesn’t get around screens
·         Ball-handling
o   Loose handle gets away from his body too much
o   Loses the ball in traffic frequently
o   Doesn’t have dribble moves; all straight line drives
·         Footwork
o   Many of his turnovers were travels
o   Most of the travels were on the start and shuffling on his gather when he stopped
o   Shooting footwork needs improvement as well
·         Finesse finishes
o   He looks for the finesse finish around the basket too often
o   He loved driving baseline and looking for a reverse layup but rarely was successful
o   Needs to look for power finishes more often
·         Change of direction
o   Slightly heavy footed and tight in the hips
o   Anunoby doesn’t swivel or drop step too smoothly


Physical
There aren’t too many specimens like OG Anunoby. Most of the athletes like Anunoby are either in the NBA or NFL. Unlike most NBA Draft targets, Anunoby doesn’t have a history of height and wingspan measurements because he was not a high-ranking recruit. It does look like he is close to the 6’8” that Indiana lists him. He reportedly has a 7’6” wingspan.  The average NBA center has a 7’3” wingspan. Once Aunuoby’s leaping ability is added to his height and length, there are very few players that can stack up against him. He’s a long strider which makes him faster than he is quick.


Offense
Most of OG Anunoby’s points during his freshman season at Indiana came from transition dunks and offensive putback dunks. The remaining points came from spot-up three-pointers. He shot 45% from three as a freshman but had only 29 attempts. The litmus test for a three-point shooter with a good percentage but a low sample size is his free throw accuracy. Anunoby shot 48% from the charity stripe. When he is not rushed, Anunoby is a good outside shooter. His mechanics fall apart when he is hurried, though. There are not many opportunities in the NBA where a player gets to take as much time as he wants to get a shot off. His shot preparation is a little too long which allows defenders to take away his space. Anunoby had a number of three-point attempts blocked. That is a sign of a slow release and/or poor awareness. Anunoby had both last year.

As a driver, Anunoby only attacks in a straight line. There aren’t dribble moves or reactionary plays when he puts the ball on the floor. If a defender is able to cut off his drive, Anunoby can’t shake the defender with a move. There are a couple of reasons for that. He’s not an advanced ball-handler, yet. His dribble gets high and away from his body frequently. The second part is that his feel and awareness aren’t developed. He needs more court time against top athletes in order to develop a more advanced game off the dribble. That lack of feel and awareness also led to a 19.7% turnover rate (via Kenpom.com) which is high.

Anunoby is a fantastic offensive rebounder. His physical tools plus effort level combine to make him one of the top forwards on the glass. He had an offensive rebounding rate of 11.4% as a freshman. Rebounding is something that usually translates from level to level.


Defense
Defense is usually about physical attributes, awareness and effort. Anunoby has the physical makeup and effort level to be a good defender. His awareness and technique need to be refined for him to take the next step. That’s why I would categorize him as a below average defender as a freshman despite having steal and block percentages that were pretty high. He doesn’t do a good job of being active away from the ball. Anunoby usually waits until his man catches the ball before he is worried about getting low and in position. Because of that, he gets caught on screens a lot as well as off balance when he goes for a shot fake while trying to catch up to the action.

There is definitely a lot of potential for Anunoby as a wing defender and a player that can switch all screens on the perimeter. He has to absorb coaching well in this area to make up for lost time, though. It seems like he is coachable, but he is still playing catch up against the world’s best athletes.


Summary
OG Anunoby excited Indiana fans and NBA Draft fans alike with his play in the final four games of 2015-2016 season. He went 16-21 from the field in those four games including many highlight plays and 3-4 from three-point range. Anunoby has NBA-level physical attributes. Other than ball-handling, the fundamental base to Anunoby’s game is pretty good. He can become a much better shooter with the base fundamentals that he has shown during wide open attempts. Repetition against top competition will help his rhythm and feel in game situations. The unknown is how much his game will jump as he gets that experience.

This is a loaded draft class with the 2016 high school players projected to be one and done along with players like Ivan Rabb that returned to school despite high draft projections last year. With that, it will not be surprising to see OG Anunoby drafted late in the lottery to the middle of the first round. I don’t think he will have an All-American type of season. If he did that, Anunoby would be a top seven pick.


With Anunoby’s physical traits and demeanor, there is a good chance that he plays in the league for 10-12 years. There is a lot of potential for him as a glue guy, defender/rebounder in the NBA. Then if his offensive game develops, OG Anunoby could be a star.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

Alec Peters Preseason NBA Draft Report

Alec Peters (Photo: Valpoathletics.com)

Alec Peters of Valparaiso University nearly declared for the NBA Draft after his junior season. He is back for his final run in a Crusaders uniform, though. He will be the mid-major draft prospect that everyone compares to Doug McDermott or Kyle Korver. Here are my thoughts on Alec Peters prior to his senior year.




Strengths
·         Spot-Up Shooting
o   Quick Release
o   As accurate and consistent as anyone from three-point range
o   His corner shooting would translate immediately to the NBA
·         Shot Selection
o   Never took bad/contested shots as a junior
o   Every shot was under controlled and measured
o   Rarely took a shot outside of the paint with a hand in his face
·         Finishing on the move around the paint
o   Does a really good job with his left hand on the move
o   His touch is really good with either hand
·         Posting up/sealing
o   Definitely not afraid of contact
o   Does a good job of getting position especially against smaller opponents

Weaknesses
·         Athleticism
o   Speed up and down the floor
o   Explosiveness/lift around the basket
·         Creating Off Dribble
o   .483 PPP when shooting off the dribble
o   Inconsistent in the mid-range when attacking close outs
·         Didn’t have to hit many contested shots
o   Most of his shots as a junior will not occur in the NBA
o   Teams routinely gave him space and he made them pay
o   The adjustment to NBA defense will be a major one
·         Finishing with his back to basket
o   Takes too long to get his shot off
o   Can’t finish over defenders
·         Lateral Quickness
o   No chance of guarding or even containing NBA small forwards off the dribble
o   Most power forwards at the NBA will have a major quickness advantage

Physical
The biggest questions about Alec Peters producing in the NBA start with his physical tools. Peters was measured at the Nike Basketball Academy in 2016 with a height of 6’8.5” in shoes and a wingspan of 6’9”. The average NBA power forward is 6’9.4” in shoes with a wingspan of 7’1.2” which means Peters is really undersized for that position. He would be a bigger than average small forward, but he has no chance of defending small forwards.  The combination of his lack of size, for the power forward position, and quickness puts Peters in a tough spot. Nearly every NBA team wants to switch every screen on the perimeter to take away three-point attempts. Peters would be at a huge disadvantage after he switched. He would need a high-level rim protector behind him.

Peters has the frame to defend power forwards in the post. He’s around 235 entering his senior year. He’ll have enough bulk to hold his ground against most 4’s in the paint. Post defense has a lot to do with taking away position and angles. Peters can do those things to make it tough on opponents.

Offense
Offense is undoubtedly the bright spot for Peters. The shooting numbers have always been there for Peters as he had a True Shooting Percentage of 61% as a freshman. That number has continued to improve even with defenses focusing on him more and more. As a junior, Peters shot 44% from three-point range. That is why he is an NBA prospect.

It might take Peters some time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game and the extra distance from three, but Peters will be able to shoot well enough to be a specialist in the NBA.

Peters is not going to be creating off the dribble in the NBA. Most of his driving attempts at the college level are when the defense overextends on close outs. He’ll have those situations in the NBA as well, but he won’t be looking to get to the paint very often at the next level. He’ll be looking to shot fake and pull up after one hard dribble. He has not demonstrated to be a very good shooter off the dribble. Peters only scored 0.483 points per possession when he attempted a shot off the dribble.
If a team does extra small, Peters would have the ability to post up. His footwork and technique are strong when sealing and getting position on the block. He doesn’t do a great job of finishing over the top of defenders. Peters was pretty good at drawing fouls when playing in the post, though.

He’s an average to below average passer. He only had an assist rate of 9.0% last season and a career rate of 9.8%. Compare that to his turnover rate of 10.8% last year and 11.7% for his career. He’s not doing much of either.


Defense
Defense is definitely going to be a challenge for Peters. Who can he match up with? Can he keep an NBA guard from blowing by him in ball screen actions? Can he hold his own in the post? In these areas, Peters is fighting an uphill battle.  If he can shoot 45% from three-point range, his shortcomings might be overlooked in short stints.

His advanced stat rebounding rates are solid. He had an offensive rebound rate of 8.8% with a defensive rate registering at 19.5%. Those are decent rates, not great, not bad.

He doesn’t bring anything to the table in terms of steals or blocks. That is usually an indication that he will struggle at the next level on defense.

He did a poor job of getting over and around screens as a junior. If he is playing the 4 spot, that really isn’t a concern in the NBA. It does exemplify the difficulty that he has keeping up with athletes and moving his hips around screens.

Summary
Alec Peters is going to get a lot of media attention – at least for a mid-major player – this season. He likely will put up monster numbers. Although his points will likely be gaudy, it is his shooting that is most important. His percentages might drop since he will have a bigger scoring burden this season for Valparaiso with Keith Carter gone. The difficulty of his shots will likely increase, so a minor dip in his three-point percentage will not be alarming.

Does he have a role in the NBA? He definitely has a chance to be a three-point specialist. If he was two inches taller, there would be no doubt that he could make it as a three-point shooting, power forward. I’m scared of his defensive ability or lack thereof.


DraftExpress has Peters slotted as the 43rd pick in the 2017 Draft right now. I think that is a bit on the high side. 45-60 is definitely a possibility. Peters is a fringe roster player at the NBA level, in my eyes. With players like that, the system, coach and roster makeup of their first team determine if they stick in the NBA or bounce out.  He would be an excellent player in a league like the ACB. 

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Ben Simmons NBA Scouting Report & Projection

Ben Simmons (Photo: Trevor Andershock)
Ben Simmons was the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft after one year at LSU. What are the strengths, weaknesses and ceiling of Ben Simmons? Trevor Andershock answers those questions as Ben Simmons begins his NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Strengths
·         Physical tools
o   Size
o   Speed
o   First step
·         Ball-Handling
o   Changes direction well when attacking the basket in the half court
o   Can rebound and lead the break without outletting the ball
·         Finishes Well
o   He has touch in the paint
o   Simmons has no problem finishing over and through defenders
o   Needs to use his left hand (actually his strong hand) more in the paint
·         Gets to free throw line
o   Shot 297 free throws in 33 games
o   .769 free throw rate meaning he shot four FTs to every five field goal attempts
·         Decent Rebounder
o   Average offensive
o   Good defensive
·         Good Defensively
o   Moves well laterally on the perimeter
o   Strength and awareness to guard in the post

Weaknesses
·         Shooting
o   Doesn’t have any range
o   Off balance frequently
o   Mechanics don’t look bad
§  Release/follow through is good
§  Brings ball back to head which creates sling shot motion and ruins arc.
·         Never uses left (strong) hand to finish in the paint
o   For some reason, he only uses his right hand in the paint
o   Many times it would be easier to use left hand
·         Turnovers
o   Charges frequently when driving
o   Playmaking leads to errant passes


Physical
There are no weaknesses with regards to physical tools for Ben Simmons. He’s 6’9” without shoes along with a 7’ wingspan. Oh, and to go with his 7-foot wingspan, Simmons has a reported 41.5” vertical leap. That makes him an athletic freak. That is part of the reason why he will be so versatile in the NBA. Teams around the league are switching 1-5 to stop outside shooting. Simmons will have no problem switching and defending any position on the floor.


Offense
Simmons averaged 19 points on 11.7 shot attempts per game as a freshman at LSU. The knock on him in the media is that he wasn’t aggressive enough on the offensive end. He’s not a natural scorer. He averaged about five assists per game on a team that went 19-14. Simmons does a little bit of everything on the offensive end although he isn’t great at any one area.

He’s best as a slasher and playmaker. Simmons can get to the basket like a guard at 6-foot-9. His feel for the game is advanced. He will look better if he has finishers around him.

The biggest weakness to Simmons’s game is his shooting. Players at every position have to be able to shoot in today’s NBA. Simmons only took three three-pointers at LSU. He has no confidence in mid-range to outside shots. He needs to work on his mechanics and consistency in order to be a star in the NBA.


Defense
There is potential for Simmons as a defender. He’ll be able to guard multiple positions especially in ball-screen situations. As he adds muscle he’ll become a better defender in the NBA. That will be a problem for him early in his career as he doesn’t have the strength or bulk to defend NBA post players.

The defensive possession doesn’t end until the rebound is secured. Simmons did a good job on the defensive glass at LSU. His defensive rebounding rate was 26.8%. That is a strong number.


Summary
The potential of Ben Simmons is fantastic. That isn’t to say that he will be a Hall of Famer. He can be a tremendous player, though. The physical tools are there. The basketball awareness and knowledge is present.  

Does Simmons have the burning desire to be great? Many critics have questioned his killer instinct. He will need that in order to develop his outside shot. If he becomes an adequate outside shooter, Simmons has a chance to be a perennial all-star.

It will be interesting to watch how Ben Simmons handles the pressure of being a number one pick. Every step of his development as an NBA player will be scrutinized. The weight of helping to rebuild the Philadelphia 76ers will be immense.  He handled the pressure and criticism of his freshman year at LSU. He was interviewed seemingly every day by ESPN. He was blamed for LSU not making the NCAA Tournament.


My feeling is that Ben Simmons will be an all-star caliber NBA player. He is ready to handle the celebrity and the criticism. He just needs to develop his jump shot.