Stephen F. Austin's Thomas Walkup grabbed national attention with his play in the NCAA Tournament a couple of weeks ago. Walkup tallied 33 points in an upset over West Virginia. He followed it up with 21 in a last-second loss to Notre Dame. How will his game translate to the NBA?
There are plenty of things to like about Thomas Walkup's game. He was the back-to-back Southland Conference Player of the Year. Walkup's statistics per 40 minutes were incredible – 24.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.8 steals. His efficiency was fantastic due to his ability to get to the free throw line. He was automatic from two-point range as well.
What made Walkup so tough to stop on the offensive end? He knows how to get to spots on the floor. Walkup isn't the most explosive player. His athleticism will be a weakness as the next level. He understands how to attack defenders, though. Once he gets his shoulder by his man, he is going to make the defender pay. He takes away the angle of the defender once he beats him by an inch. Walkup is physical on drives. He uses the contact to create space.
Walkup is patient with the ball. He never dribbles unless he knows where he wants to go with the ball. When he puts the ball on the floor, it is to attack or to improve a passing angle. He eliminates many bad positions by reading the defense before he dribbles the ball.
Walkup reads defenders on close outs very well. One reason behind that is his ability to know the positioning of his defender before he catches it. He knows on the catch if his defender is going to be closing out from a distance or if his guy is nearby. If the defender is in position, he uses shot fakes to get an advantage. For a below average shooter, Walkup does a great job of getting defenders to bite on shot fakes.
The Stephen F. Austin guard is a rare player in recent years that thrived in the mid-range. Walkup isn't an explosive leaper, so often times it didn't make sense for him to drive all the way to the basket. He was great at hitting shots off the dribble in the 10-15 foot range.
Despite his mid-range shooting, Walkup did not have success from beyond the arc. He only attempted 39 three-point shots in 34 games this season. Many of those shots were late in the shot clock to avoid the violation. He shot just 26% as a senior. For his career, Walkup shot 30.5% on 131 three-point attempts.
Outside shooting will be a key for Thomas Walkup making it in the NBA. His form needs a little bit of work but it doesn't have any major flaws. He shoots well in the mid-range. Walkup converted 82% of his free throws this season. His free throw shooting has improved each of his four seasons at Stephen F. Austin. That bodes well for Walkup developing range at the NBA level.
Other than shooting, defense will be the biggest question mark for Walkup at the next level. He often guarded power forwards this season for SFA. He used his strength to make up for his height in those situations. Even against the increasingly popular small-ball lineups, Walkup will not be able to guard fours in the NBA.
Walkup doesn't have the lateral quickness that you would like in a player that will defend shooting guards. I'm not sure that Walkup can ever be better than an average defender at the next level. The only way that he makes it to the average benchmark is if he uses his strength, toughness, and basketball understanding to offset his lateral quickness. Toughness and intelligence can make up for a lot, but can it make up for Walkup's size and athleticism? It will be an uphill fight.
At 6-foot-4 and I'll estimate his wingspan at 6-6, Walkup's NBA fate likely comes down to his shooting ability. His offense has to be able to balance out his potential struggles on the defensive end. He's not going to be scoring in the paint at the NBA level like he did at Stephen F. Austin. Bottom line, Thomas Walkup can find a role off an NBA bench if he becomes a 35% or better three-point shooter.
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