Ben Simmons NBA Scouting Report & Projection

Ben Simmons (Photo: Trevor Andershock)

Ben Simmons was the first pick of the 2016 NBA Draft after one year at LSU. What are the strengths, weaknesses and ceiling of Ben Simmons? Trevor Andershock answers those questions as Ben Simmons begins his NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Strengths

·         Physical tools

o   Size

o   Speed

o   First step

·         Ball-Handling

o   Changes direction well when attacking the basket in the half court

o   Can rebound and lead the break without outletting the ball

·         Finishes Well

o   He has touch in the paint

o   Simmons has no problem finishing over and through defenders

o   Needs to use his left hand (actually his strong hand) more in the paint

·         Gets to free throw line

o   Shot 297 free throws in 33 games

o   .769 free throw rate meaning he shot four FTs to every five field goal attempts

·         Decent Rebounder

o   Average offensive

o   Good defensive

·         Good Defensively

o   Moves well laterally on the perimeter

o   Strength and awareness to guard in the post

Weaknesses

·         Shooting

o   Doesn’t have any range

o   Off balance frequently

o   Mechanics don’t look bad

§  Release/follow through is good

§  Brings ball back to head which creates sling shot motion and ruins arc.

·         Never uses left (strong) hand to finish in the paint

o   For some reason, he only uses his right hand in the paint

o   Many times it would be easier to use left hand

·         Turnovers

o   Charges frequently when driving

o   Playmaking leads to errant passes

Physical

There are no weaknesses with regards to physical tools for Ben Simmons. He’s 6’9” without shoes along with a 7’ wingspan. Oh, and to go with his 7-foot wingspan, Simmons has a reported 41.5” vertical leap. That makes him an athletic freak. That is part of the reason why he will be so versatile in the NBA. Teams around the league are switching 1-5 to stop outside shooting. Simmons will have no problem switching and defending any position on the floor.

Offense

Simmons averaged 19 points on 11.7 shot attempts per game as a freshman at LSU. The knock on him in the media is that he wasn’t aggressive enough on the offensive end. He’s not a natural scorer. He averaged about five assists per game on a team that went 19-14. Simmons does a little bit of everything on the offensive end although he isn’t great at any one area.

He’s best as a slasher and playmaker. Simmons can get to the basket like a guard at 6-foot-9. His feel for the game is advanced. He will look better if he has finishers around him.

The biggest weakness to Simmons’s game is his shooting. Players at every position have to be able to shoot in today’s NBA. Simmons only took three three-pointers at LSU. He has no confidence in mid-range to outside shots. He needs to work on his mechanics and consistency in order to be a star in the NBA.

Defense

There is potential for Simmons as a defender. He’ll be able to guard multiple positions especially in ball-screen situations. As he adds muscle he’ll become a better defender in the NBA. That will be a problem for him early in his career as he doesn’t have the strength or bulk to defend NBA post players.

The defensive possession doesn’t end until the rebound is secured. Simmons did a good job on the defensive glass at LSU. His defensive rebounding rate was 26.8%. That is a strong number.

Summary

The potential of Ben Simmons is fantastic. That isn’t to say that he will be a Hall of Famer. He can be a tremendous player, though. The physical tools are there. The basketball awareness and knowledge is present.  

Does Simmons have the burning desire to be great? Many critics have questioned his killer instinct. He will need that in order to develop his outside shot. If he becomes an adequate outside shooter, Simmons has a chance to be a perennial all-star.

It will be interesting to watch how Ben Simmons handles the pressure of being a number one pick. Every step of his development as an NBA player will be scrutinized. The weight of helping to rebuild the Philadelphia 76ers will be immense.  He handled the pressure and criticism of his freshman year at LSU. He was interviewed seemingly every day by ESPN. He was blamed for LSU not making the NCAA Tournament.

My feeling is that Ben Simmons will be an all-star caliber NBA player. He is ready to handle the celebrity and the criticism. He just needs to develop his jump shot.

Jamal Murray NBA Scouting Report & Projection

Jamal Murray was drafted by the Denver Nuggets with the seventh pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. Here’s a look at Jamal Murray’s scouting report and projection as he enters the league.

Strengths

·         Shooting

o   40% on 7.7 attempts per game as a freshman at Kentucky

o   Easy, smooth mechanics that allow him to shoot from well beyond the line

o   Doesn’t need much space to get his shot off

·         Age

o   Only 19 years old

o   Doesn’t turn 20 until February

o   Plenty of time to adjust to NBA

·         Moves Without Ball

o   Murray uses screens well

o   He was constantly coming off screens and getting his feet set quickly at UK

o   Understands how to relocate to the passer’s line of sight

Weaknesses

·         Defense

o   Fundamentally flawed

o   Poor awareness

o   Average to below average lateral quickness for NBA

·         Creating For Others

o   Decent passer but he doesn’t create shots for his teammates

o   Most assists at UK came in transition or from moving the ball around perimeter

·         Physical Tools

o   6’3” without shoes is short for an NBA shooting guard

o   6’6.5” wingspan is underwhelming

o   Reported 39.5” vertical at UK pro day but athleticism doesn’t show in games

Physical

As a shooting guard, Jamal Murray’s physical measurements are below par. He’s only 6-foot-3 without shoes on.  That’s about two inches shorter than the normal shooting guard. His wingspan (6’6.5”) does not make up for his lack of height. Some will say that he will be able to play the point guard position where his size is more suitable, but I do not seeing that to be true.

Kentucky reported his vertical leap at 39.5”. That would be fantastic if true. During his freshman season, Murray did not display that explosiveness in transition or in the half court. There wasn’t that incredible athleticism displayed throughout any of the year.

Offense

Jamal Murray is a shooter first and foremost. He shot 40% for the season on 277 attempts. That sample size of shots proves that it wasn’t Murray getting lucky rolls to inflate his shooting percentage. Murray has a textbook shot with quick, smooth mechanics. He does not need much space to get his shot off from any distance. The only inconsistency with his shot was when he really had to rush much more than the normal catch and shoot situation.

He has a bit of a floater game off the dribble. He didn’t get to the paint very much in his freshman season at Kentucky. Murray usually got to the paint when opponents closed out too hard in order to stop his shot.  When he did get to the paint, he was looking for his shot and not to pass the ball.

Murray is a decent passer and ball protector. Despite those two skills, Murray didn’t set his teammates up frequently at Kentucky. Most of his assists came in transition and by moving the ball around the perimeter for open shots. They weren’t draw and kicks or penetrate and drop offs too often.

That’s part of the reason why I don’t see Murray as a point guard, at least, early in his career. He can bring the ball up the court, but he isn’t going to be breaking down defenses.  The other part of being a point guard or combo guard is defending point guards. That will be a monumental task for Murray at this point.

Defense

The steepest learning curve or uphill battle for Murray in the NBA is the defensive end. His defensive fundamentals are incredibly weak. Murray gets lost on the defensive end frequently by turning away from his man and standing straight up away from the ball. He’s not the quickness player laterally anyway, so the fundamental lapses cost him dearly. The little things like giving his man too much space when chasing shooters around screens and getting caught on each screen add up to Murray being a below average defender. The good news is that Murray can improve most of these areas if he buys into the coaching.

Summary

There is a lot of room in the NBA for shot makers. Jamal Murray should be able to do that as well as anyone. If he cashes in 40% of his three-point attempts, his defensive liability will be overlooked. I could see him being a power guard that shoots the ball at a high level.

I see Murray’s NBA ceiling as a one or two time all-star. The more likely peak of his career is being a second or third scorer - good but not great NBA player. He’ll have to improve on the defensive end and expand his ball-handling/playmaking to be in the realm of an all-star. 

FIBA U17 USA-Turkey Game Notes

Collin Sexton (Photo: USA Basketball)

The FIBA U17 World Championships are being played in Spain right now. Here are some thoughts from the USA-Turkey game that was played on Friday. I’ve seen most of the USA players many times, so these are just notes from the Turkey game.

Collin Sexton – ultra fast (John Wall speed) in the open court. Creative finishes while moving the ball to avoid shot blockers. Smooth left-hand finish in traffic. I didn’t know he had these physical tools to go with his natural scoring ability.

Wendell Carter – Good performance against Turkey. He dominated the paint. He played some 1 on 3 breaks well defensively where he was jabbing at the ball-handler without committing.

Troy Brown – looks the part physically. Active on the offensive glass early against Turkey. His length is an excellent asset when he is slashing and finishing around the basket. His shot has always been a question mark.

Markus Howard – lightning quick crossover move -> mid-range shot but the defender still contested it. Best as a long distance shooter. Size is a major drawback going forward in his career.

Carte’Are Gordon – dropped head after foul. Then was late reacting to play followed by watching the ball instead of moving into help rotation. Struggled catching and handling the ball in the first half.

Jaren Jackson Jr. – has to play lower. His size and length are great around the basket, but he has to play with a lower center of gravity on the perimeter in order to defend better. It will help him on the offensive end as well.

Kevin Knox – lost defensively, didn’t change direction defensively well on the perimeter.

Austin Wiley – Great size, good rotation on his free throws, power player in the post. Looks like it is painful for him to run at times.

Gary Trent Jr. – knows how to score with power. Haven’t seen much creativity to his scoring in the paint. He was born to score, though.

Jordan Brown – has really quick feet for a player his size. Offensively it looks like he is raw. He has a soft touch from the block, though. Needs to add muscle to his long frame as well. He’s a 2018 player and only 16 years old.

I didn’t get any notes on Javonte Smart or Immanuel Quickley during the USA-Turkey game.

Turkey

#14 – Ahmet Can Duran - Post with excellent footwork, passes well,  very thick legs, 6’9” ish, decent looking mid-range shot, not much lift when trying to block shots or rebound. He had trouble finishing around the USA bigs.

#13 – Muhaymin Mustafa – 6’5” looks long, decent athlete, good mid-range shot, long range shot looks inconsistent right now.

#10 – Onuralp Bitim – Played this past high school year at Huntington Prep in America. He looks all of 6’6” and displayed a floater game off the dribble. Decent feet overall. Handles the ball pretty well.

Marquese Chriss NBA Draft Scouting Report

Washington’s Marquese Chriss is becoming the darling of the 2016 NBA Draft. He is rocketing up mock drafts. Many places now have Chriss slotted to go third or fourth overall. Here’s Trevor Andershock’s look at the strengths, weaknesses and projection of Marquese Chriss in the NBA.

Strengths

·         Age

o   18 years old when drafted. He turns 19 July 2

o   Plenty of time to develop

·         Leaping Ability

o   Max vertical jump of 38.5 inches at the combine

o   Catches lobs around the basket with great frequency

o   Leaping helped Chriss block 1.6 shots per game

·         Potential As Shooter

o   Shooting mechanics are smooth

o   Good follow through and rotation on ball

o   Could improve greatly on his 35% three-point accuracy

Weaknesses

·         Limited Production Especially Rebounding

o   Only averaged 13.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game

o   Worrisome rebounding rates for a high selection

·         Average/Below Average Defensively

o   4.1 fouls per game and 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes raise concerns

o   Falls asleep off the ball frequently

o   Not particularly quick from a lateral standpoint

·         Wingspan

o   Decent height (6’8.75”) but only 7’0.25” wingspan

o   His wingspan is below small forward averages

o   Puts him in a disadvantage in post and on the glass.

Physical

Marquese Chriss is very young as he enters the league. He will be 18 when he is drafted on June 23. Chriss turns 19 on July 2. That gives him many years of NBA experience before he should reach his ceiling. NBA teams like that potential.

The best physical tool that Chriss has is his jumping ability. He is a fantastic leaper especially in close spaces. He doesn’t need a running start to fly well above the rim for an alley oop. He has a maximum vertical jump of 38.5 inches at the combine. He does a good job as a runner as well. He gets up and down the floor with ease. That could put pressure on the rare bigger lineups.

The downside to Marquese Chriss is his arms. He only has a wingspan of approximately seven feet. That is long in the everyday world but short for NBA standards. Most power forwards in the NBA have wingspans in excess of 7’3”. That puts Chriss at a disadvantage when players are battling and have limited jumping ability.

Offense

When looking at the offensive clips of Chriss at Washington there are a few things that stick out. He has a great ability of catching and finishing lob passes. The passer has plenty of room for error with Chriss. There are very few passes that Chriss can’t handle. His defender can’t help or lose track of him because he can catch a lob with no gather or running start. That adds an extra dimension to offenses.

The upside of Chriss lies with his outside shot. He only shot 35% on 60 attempts from three-point range as a freshman at Washington. Most coaches and general managers will like his shooting mechanics. He has a high release with a smooth follow through. The arc of the shot looks good as well. The consistency with distance is not there for Chriss at this point.

He displayed a quick first step off the dribble at Washington. He was particularly successful when attacking from the free throw line area. It was almost entirely straight line drives, but he was able to control his dribble and get by defenders with relative ease.

Defense

At first glance of Chriss’s defensive stats, they don’t look bad since he averaged 1.6 blocks per game. That number is 2.6 per 40 minutes. That is a decent rate for a non-center. The next stat is quite worrisome, though. Chriss averaged 4.1 fouls per game as a freshman. That number balloons to 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes played.

Those foul numbers indicate a lack of quickness, a lack of awareness or both. He’s not a player that will be able to guard shooting guards in the NBA, but Chriss isn’t a lumbering big that can’t move his feet.  He does struggle to contain ball-handlers, but he’s about average as a lateral athlete. However, he does get caught watching the ball too often. He’s late with his rotations on a fairly regular basis. He doesn’t do a good job with positioning before his man gets the ball. That leads to him being a below average defender.

Summary

There’s definitely upside with Marquese Chriss. He is a good leaper that could really thrive with a playmaking point guard. Early on everything will need to be spoon-fed to Chriss. The potential comes down the road if he becomes a good to great three-point shooter. That is especially true if his shot blocking translates to the NBA. He could be a small-ball center with outside shooting and shot blocking capabilities. There would be major worth to that type of player.

Chriss is definitely a high-risk selection in the top five. He doesn’t have much of a track record with regards to his freshman year production at Washington. I would be comfortable picking Chriss around the eighth spot and jump at the chance to pick him after the lottery. It doesn’t look like he will make it to either of those slots if the major mock drafts are correct. 

Kris Dunn NBA Scouting Report

Providence’s Kris Dunn is slotted to be one of the top picks in the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft. He is a rare senior in the lottery. Here’s a breakdown of Kris Dunn as he heads into the NBA.

Strengths

·         Size

o   6’3” without shoes

o   6’9.5” wingspan

o   His size and length gives him the ability to be versatile defensively

·         Athleticism

o   Very good leaper around the basket

o   Quick feet on both ends of the floor

o   Moves well laterally with the ability to change direction

·         Playmaking Off Dribble

o   Splits defenders with ease

o   Fantastic with a change of direction crossover when going downhill

o   Passes well, 16^th in NCAA with 6.2 assists per game as senior

·         Defensive Ability

o   Uses length and athleticism to bother opponents

o   Reads passing lanes well

o   Quick enough to defend point guards, big enough to guard shooting guards

·         Physical

o   Uses body well on both ends of the floor

o   He likes to post up smaller defenders

o   Dunn seeks contact

Weaknesses

·         Shooting Consistency

o   The biggest knock on Dunn

o   Shot 35% from three-point range for college career

o   Shot 69% from free throw line for college career

o   Leans back on shot attempt which causes some of the inconsistency

·         Age

o   22 years old

o   That means he is nearly a finished product and needs to be good immediately in NBA

·         High Turnover Rate

o   3.5 turnovers per game as senior and 4.2 turnover a game as a junior

o   18.8% turnover rate as a senior and 21.6% turnover rate for his career

Physical Tools

Dunn is 6-foot-3 without shoes. He has a 6-9.5 wingspan. Those two measurements give Dunn excellent size for the NBA point guard position. His physical tools are immense. Dunn is a good overall athlete. He will explode for dunks in the paint. He has good speed and quickness in the open court and half court alike. Physically, Kris Dunn does not have many limitations.

Offense

Dunn was best as a slasher and playmaker at the college level. He split defenders in the ball-screen game with ease. If a defender stays back, Dunn attacks him going downhill and uses a quick crossover to blow by him. He is more than a willing passer. Dunn averaged over six assists per game as a senior.

At the collegiate level, Dunn has been an average outside shooter. He has a slight lean away from the basket to his shot even when he is open. I believe that leads to some of his shooting inconsistency. He did hit 37% of his three-point attempts as a senior. He’s not an awful shooter, just inconsistent. Dunn will need to be a good outside shooter in order to be a major player in the NBA.

Defense

Dunn could make an impact on the defensive end. He has the size, quickness, toughness and anticipation to be a high level defender. He will take the challenge of stopping the best point guards. Dunn will be able to defend both guard positions.

Dunn had a defensive rating of 94.8 as a senior. For a career, Dunn had a defensive rating of 95.4. He averaged 2.5 steals a game as senior. As a junior, Dunn swiped 2.7 steals per game. His track record on the defensive end is very good.

Summary

Kris Dunn projects well to the NBA. His game isn’t a finished product, but if he improves his shooting and becomes an even better finisher then he will have a long NBA career.  Dunn should be able to carve out a role as a playmaker, ball-handler and defender no matter what.

In the 2016 Draft, Dunn is a need selection meaning that the team that takes him should be filling a weakness with the acquisition of Dunn. He’s not a player that you take just because he is the best available prospect. If he falls below the fifth pick, I really like/support taking him. At that point, he isn’t much of a risk to be a complete bust. As a ceiling, I see Dunn as a two or three time all-star. If he becomes an elite shooter (unlikely), Dunn would be able to outperform that ceiling.

Brandon Ingram NBA Scouting Report

Ingram (Photo: Trevor Andershock)

Duke’s Brandon Ingram will either be the first or second pick in the 2016 NBA Draft on June 23. Here’s a look at Trevor Andershock’s scouting report on Brandon Ingram heading into the draft.

Strengths

·         Physical Tools

o   6’8” without shoes, 6’10” with shoes

o   7’3” wingspan

o   18 years old until September

·         Shooting             

o   Quick release, limited motion

o   Gets his feet set before catch

o   Limited knee bend which makes him more consistent

o   Misses are always on-line

o   A bit worried his shot is a little flat & might take time to adjust to NBA 3.

·         Mid-Post Game

o   Jabs to get defender off balance

o   Height allows him to shoot over most defenders

o   Handles the ball well in traffic

               

Weaknesses

·         Finishing in Traffic

o   Doesn’t do a good job of finishing over the top of defenders

o   Doesn’t have a float game right now

·         Creating Space Off Drive

o   Jabs well but only one speed on his drives

o   Only a straight line driver with a possible spin move

o   Part of the reason why he doesn’t finish that well is because he isn’t blowing by his primary defender

·         Rarely Came Off Screens

o   Played as a stretch 4 most of his year at Duke

o   Didn’t come off screens for outside shots

o   Never was the ball screen ball-handler

·         Defensive Ability

o   High hips, he doesn’t change direction really well

o   Long strides, not fast twitch feet

o   Gets caught on a lot of screens

It’s hard not to be optimistic about Brandon Ingram. He’s a very young player as he doesn’t turn 19 until September of 2016. Ingram posted great numbers as a freshman at Duke while playing an extremely tough schedule. Then he has physical tools that make NBA personnel salivate.

Stats

Ingram averaged 17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game as a freshman. In per 40 minutes played, those numbers equate to 20 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.6 blocks.

His advanced stats weren’t eye-popping. He had a true shooting percentage of .552, which is average. His rebounding numbers were below par considering how much time he spent as a power forward in Duke’s lineup. He had an offensive rebounding rate of 6% and a defensive rebounding rate of 15.5%. Those are not very good for stretch four.

The best statistic that Ingram has going for him is his 41% from three-point range. He shot 42% from three in ACC play. His shooting ability is a major selling point for his future success in the NBA.

Weaknesses/Concerns

Brandon Ingram is a good athlete. He jumps well. He has long strides that allow him to cover ground in an efficient manner. Ingram doesn’t have an explosive first step. He rarely goes by defenders off the dribble using his quickness. In fact, he rarely got by defenders off the dribble at all during his freshman season at Duke.

Ingram does a good job of using jab steps to get defenders off balance especially in the mid-range. He is a straight line driver, though. He doesn’t use change of direction or change of pace to create space against defenders. That means that his shots around the basket are often contested. At the collegiate level, Ingram had the athleticism/size/length to finish over the top of defenders. Overall, he struggled to finish around the basket, though. It will be even more difficult at the NBA level where the players are bigger, faster and stronger.  That is a major concern going forward.

He can offset that problem if he continues to be a 38% or better shooter from three-point range in the NBA. Defenders would need to take away his space on the catch which would allow Ingram a chance to drive by opponents.

My other major concern about Ingram is his defensive ability. At Duke he primarily guarded power forwards. His length gave him the ability to challenge most forwards in the post although he gave up a lot of weight. Ingram will need to add a bunch of muscle in order to guard NBA post players.

I’m not sold on his defensive ability on the perimeter either. His long legs actually hurt him when trying to guard quick wings. He has problems changing direction quickly. As noted before, Ingram is a long strider, not a fast-twitch athlete. That comes into play on his close outs against wings. He is often out of position when closing out.

Summary

Brandon Ingram is a tremendous prospect. His ceiling is very high with his size and shooting ability. His floor is a little worrisome for a top two pick. Ingram’s shooting is the biggest key to his success. If he knocks down three-pointers at a high rate, Brandon Ingram will be a star.