Providence’s Kris Dunn is slotted to be one of the top picks in the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft. He is a rare senior in the lottery. Here’s a breakdown of Kris Dunn as he heads into the NBA.
Strengths
· Size
o 6’3” without shoes
o 6’9.5” wingspan
o His size and length gives him the ability to be versatile defensively
· Athleticism
o Very good leaper around the basket
o Quick feet on both ends of the floor
o Moves well laterally with the ability to change direction
· Playmaking Off Dribble
o Splits defenders with ease
o Fantastic with a change of direction crossover when going downhill
o Passes well, 16th in NCAA with 6.2 assists per game as senior
· Defensive Ability
o Uses length and athleticism to bother opponents
o Reads passing lanes well
o Quick enough to defend point guards, big enough to guard shooting guards
· Physical
o Uses body well on both ends of the floor
o He likes to post up smaller defenders
o Dunn seeks contact
Weaknesses
· Shooting Consistency
o The biggest knock on Dunn
o Shot 35% from three-point range for college career
o Shot 69% from free throw line for college career
o Leans back on shot attempt which causes some of the inconsistency
· Age
o 22 years old
o That means he is nearly a finished product and needs to be good immediately in NBA
· High Turnover Rate
o 3.5 turnovers per game as senior and 4.2 turnover a game as a junior
o 18.8% turnover rate as a senior and 21.6% turnover rate for his career
Physical Tools
Dunn is 6-foot-3 without shoes. He has a 6-9.5 wingspan. Those two measurements give Dunn excellent size for the NBA point guard position. His physical tools are immense. Dunn is a good overall athlete. He will explode for dunks in the paint. He has good speed and quickness in the open court and half court alike. Physically, Kris Dunn does not have many limitations.
Offense
Dunn was best as a slasher and playmaker at the college level. He split defenders in the ball-screen game with ease. If a defender stays back, Dunn attacks him going downhill and uses a quick crossover to blow by him. He is more than a willing passer. Dunn averaged over six assists per game as a senior.
At the collegiate level, Dunn has been an average outside shooter. He has a slight lean away from the basket to his shot even when he is open. I believe that leads to some of his shooting inconsistency. He did hit 37% of his three-point attempts as a senior. He’s not an awful shooter, just inconsistent. Dunn will need to be a good outside shooter in order to be a major player in the NBA.
Defense
Dunn could make an impact on the defensive end. He has the size, quickness, toughness and anticipation to be a high level defender. He will take the challenge of stopping the best point guards. Dunn will be able to defend both guard positions.
Dunn had a defensive rating of 94.8 as a senior. For a career, Dunn had a defensive rating of 95.4. He averaged 2.5 steals a game as senior. As a junior, Dunn swiped 2.7 steals per game. His track record on the defensive end is very good.
Summary
Kris Dunn projects well to the NBA. His game isn’t a finished product, but if he improves his shooting and becomes an even better finisher then he will have a long NBA career. Dunn should be able to carve out a role as a playmaker, ball-handler and defender no matter what.
In the 2016 Draft, Dunn is a need selection meaning that the team that takes him should be filling a weakness with the acquisition of Dunn. He’s not a player that you take just because he is the best available prospect. If he falls below the fifth pick, I really like/support taking him. At that point, he isn’t much of a risk to be a complete bust. As a ceiling, I see Dunn as a two or three time all-star. If he becomes an elite shooter (unlikely), Dunn would be able to outperform that ceiling.
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