A person that is doing some great work with player projections through statistics and analytics is Dan Dickey aka Hoops Nerd. He stated on Twitter that he projects Jaylen Brown to be in the mold of Shabazz Muhammad instead of a top 3-5 draft pick that many predict. He believes that Brown is being overhyped. Here is a deeper look into that comparison.
Jaylen Brown and Shabazz Muhammad are similar in size and length. They were both measured at the Hoop Summit after their senior year of high school. Muhammad measured exactly an inch shorter than Brown. Muhammad was 6-foot-4.5-inches while Brown was 6-foot-5.5-inches. Brown had an inch advantage in terms of wingspan as well. An inch of difference is noteworthy but not a huge deal when dealing with wing players.
I see a difference in their body makeup, though. Jaylen Brown looks much leaner than Shabazz Muhammad did as a freshman as at UCLA. It looked like he was carrying extra weight from the end of his high school career throughout his time at UCLA. In comparison, Brown looks to be in great physical condition. There doesn't appear to be any bad weight to Brown.
Both were regarded as fantastic athletes coming out of high school – rightfully so. Muhammad got his athletic reputation through his leaping ability. He was an elite jumper; there is no doubt about that. He wasn't an elite athlete in terms of quickness. Muhammad was quick, don't get me wrong, but he didn't have a transcendent explosion off the dribble. That is the biggest difference between Brown and Muhammad as athletes. Brown has an elite first step and incredible lateral quickness. This difference will be a major factor in Brown's projection as a player.
Muhammad only played one year of college basketball before entering the NBA Draft. That will be the case with Brown as well. There are many similarities in the college statistics of the two players. Per 40 minutes, Muhammad averaged 23 points compared to Brown's 22. Their true shooting and effective shooting percentages are close together. Muhammad had a true shooting percentage of .528 compared to Brown's .534.
There are a few differences in the statistics, though. Muhammad did not pass the ball in college. He averaged 1.1 assists per 40 minutes. Brown averages 2.8 assists per 40. Those aren't exactly John Stockton-like numbers, but it shows that Brown is a willing passer.
Brown is turning it over more at California than Muhammad did at UCLA. Part of that is the fact that Brown is trying to make more passes than Muhammad did. The other part is that Brown has to tighten his ball-handling when attacking the basket. He beats his primary time after time before losing the handle on his way to the basket. There is no simple fix for that but it could improve over time.
Brown's biggest weakness going forward is his outside shooting. He is making 30.9% of his three-point attempts this season. Wing players have to be able to shoot in today's NBA game. Outside shooting was an area of weakness for Muhammad coming out of high school as well. He shot a respectable 37.7% on a relatively small sample size of 106 at UCLA. Muhammad has not proven himself as a consistent shooter at the NBA level.
If one watches Brown shoot from the three-point line or the free throw stripe, his mechanics are better than his results. There are no major flaws in his stroke. He should be able to develop into, at least, an average shooter from the outside.
The other side of the ball presents Brown with an opportunity to shine at the next level. He could develop into one of the top perimeter defenders at the next level. Brown has the lateral quickness to defend all perimeter players. He should be able to switch on point guards through power forwards with his size, strength and lateral movement. There is no comparison between the two on the defensive end. Muhammad isn't in the same ball park as Brown when it comes to lateral quickness. Muhammad struggled to turn his hips at UCLA on top of his lack of lateral quickness.
The final separating factor between Jaylen Brown and Shabazz Muhammad as NBA prospects is that Brown has no red flags at this point. By this time in Muhammad's freshman year, it had been discovered that Muhammad was a year older than he stated throughout high school. Muhammad's behavior on the court was questionable. He was often selfish with little regard for team success. Brown hasn't been in trouble off the court. On the court, it looks like he is buying into the team concept at California.
Jaylen Brown's game is going to translate well to the next level. He has to continue to improve his outside shooting and ball-handling. If he is able to become a 35% three-point shooter within the first couple years of his career, Brown could be an All-Star.
Early in his career, Brown should be able to excel in transition and on the glass. He should develop into a good defender relatively fast as well. Then if he continues to progress on the offensive end, he could be in consideration for an All-Star spot in his third or fourth year. There is a good chance that he reaches that type of level in his NBA career.
Follow Trevor Andershock on Twitter @INBBallSource and @ScoutNotesNBA
No comments:
Post a Comment