Baylor's Taurean Prince NBA Evaluation

Taurean Prince via the Indy Star

Taurean Prince of Baylor had an excellent second half against Yale in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. His play and toughness down the stretch of the game intrigued me to learn more about Taurean Prince as an NBA prospect. He had 28 points in the game. His press conference answer to Yale's rebounding advantage gained national traction this week. Here's what I found when I dug deeper into Prince.

Prince had a strong senior year. He led Baylor with 16 points per game or 20.8 per 40 minutes played. The senior wing shot 36% on 141 three-point attempts this season. For his career, Prince shot 37.6% from beyond the arc. Those are respectable numbers while playing in the Big 12. His 7.9 rebounds per 40 is a strong number as well from the wing position.

Prince has the measurables that NBA teams would like in a small forward. He is 6'6” without shoes. He has been measured with a 6'11” wingspan. Prince's 215-pound frame is nearly all muscle. That is a good sign for his conditioning and work ethic. Also, he is young for a senior in college. Prince will still be 21 years old when the NBA Draft takes place in June.

Offensively, Prince could develop into a very good three-point shooter especially in the corners. It is a shot that he already likes at the college game where there is no distance advantage on the shot. As mentioned before, Prince shot 36% from three-point range this year and just under 40% as a junior. His shooting mechanics are solid. He has a high shooting pocket and release point. However, I believe Prince could be a better shooter. There were dozens of times this season when Prince was floating around the perimeter with his arms in the air signaling to his teammates that he was open. This took away from his shot preparation when his teammates did pass him the ball. I charted some of his spot-up three-pointers. He was 2-14 when he called for the ball with his arms in the air. He shot 12-30 when he didn't have his arms in the air and did some shot preparation. They are both small sample sizes, but I think, it points that it could be something easy to fix.

Taurean Prince will be a spot-up shooter, at least, early in his NBA career. He will need to find a way to create separation off the dribble in order to be more than a shooter. Prince has a below average first step for an NBA wing although he is a very good leaper. He never blew by defenders off the dribble in the Big 12. That led Prince to force shots after he drove. His successful drives were attacking closeouts or getting his defender off balance with a jab-step. If he didn't create separation immediately, he used his body and length to get the shot off in the lane. He's not afraid to be physical on the offensive end.

Speaking of driving, Prince put the ball on the floor to create shots for himself and not others at Baylor. He rarely passed the ball once he started to drive. If he did pass, they were often errant passes. He proved to be a very poor passer this season. On the season, Prince had 91 turnovers to 77 assists. He can cut back on his turnovers by tightening his handles. Prince gets the ball away from his body when trying to shake defenders and the ball is frequently stripped in traffic. Prince's ball-handling and passing are major concerns for the NBA level.

Defensively is where Prince needs to be really good in order to stick in the NBA. There are definitely a lot of question marks about this area of Prince's game. He averaged 1.7 steals per 40 minutes this season for Baylor. That isn't a bad number. It's the same that Kawhi Leonard posted as a sophomore at San Diego State. Prince's focus, mechanics and lateral quickness worry me, though. His 6'11 wingspan could be a saving grace. He doesn't seem focused on the defensive end. He's late to the movement of the ball. During closeouts, Prince is too high and lunges or jumps at the offensive player instead of being down and ready to contain the player. His anticipation and mechanics have to be strong since he's not going to be the quickest guy at the next level.

Is Taurean Prince going to be willing to put in the effort to become a 3-D player? I'm not sold by his on-court attitude that he will. Prince complains about nearly every non-call when he goes to the basket. There were many times that his reaction would justify a technical foul but the official let it slide. Overall, he played hard, but there were times when he gave up on plays that he could have made a difference in.

The question marks about his attitude and focus on the court drop him from a first-round selection to a second-round pick. He would be a late first-round pick if I was sold that he's a big-time competitor on the defensive end. I haven't seen it in the Baylor games this season, though. It will be interesting to see if someone gambles on his upside and takes him in the first round.

Jaylen Brown: The Next Shabazz Muhammad?

A person that is doing some great work with player projections through statistics and analytics is Dan Dickey aka Hoops Nerd. He stated on Twitter that he projects Jaylen Brown to be in the mold of Shabazz Muhammad instead of a top 3-5 draft pick that many predict. He believes that Brown is being overhyped. Here is a deeper look into that comparison.

Jaylen Brown and Shabazz Muhammad are similar in size and length. They were both measured at the Hoop Summit after their senior year of high school. Muhammad measured exactly an inch shorter than Brown. Muhammad was 6-foot-4.5-inches while Brown was 6-foot-5.5-inches. Brown had an inch advantage in terms of wingspan as well. An inch of difference is noteworthy but not a huge deal when dealing with wing players.

I see a difference in their body makeup, though. Jaylen Brown looks much leaner than Shabazz Muhammad did as a freshman as at UCLA. It looked like he was carrying extra weight from the end of his high school career throughout his time at UCLA. In comparison, Brown looks to be in great physical condition. There doesn't appear to be any bad weight to Brown.

Both were regarded as fantastic athletes coming out of high school – rightfully so. Muhammad got his athletic reputation through his leaping ability. He was an elite jumper; there is no doubt about that. He wasn't an elite athlete in terms of quickness. Muhammad was quick, don't get me wrong, but he didn't have a transcendent explosion off the dribble. That is the biggest difference between Brown and Muhammad as athletes. Brown has an elite first step and incredible lateral quickness. This difference will be a major factor in Brown's projection as a player.

Muhammad only played one year of college basketball before entering the NBA Draft. That will be the case with Brown as well. There are many similarities in the college statistics of the two players. Per 40 minutes, Muhammad averaged 23 points compared to Brown's 22. Their true shooting and effective shooting percentages are close together. Muhammad had a true shooting percentage of .528 compared to Brown's .534.

There are a few differences in the statistics, though. Muhammad did not pass the ball in college. He averaged 1.1 assists per 40 minutes. Brown averages 2.8 assists per 40. Those aren't exactly John Stockton-like numbers, but it shows that Brown is a willing passer.

Brown is turning it over more at California than Muhammad did at UCLA. Part of that is the fact that Brown is trying to make more passes than Muhammad did. The other part is that Brown has to tighten his ball-handling when attacking the basket. He beats his primary time after time before losing the handle on his way to the basket. There is no simple fix for that but it could improve over time.

Brown's biggest weakness going forward is his outside shooting. He is making 30.9% of his three-point attempts this season. Wing players have to be able to shoot in today's NBA game. Outside shooting was an area of weakness for Muhammad coming out of high school as well. He shot a respectable 37.7% on a relatively small sample size of 106 at UCLA. Muhammad has not proven himself as a consistent shooter at the NBA level.

If one watches Brown shoot from the three-point line or the free throw stripe, his mechanics are better than his results. There are no major flaws in his stroke. He should be able to develop into, at least, an average shooter from the outside.

The other side of the ball presents Brown with an opportunity to shine at the next level. He could develop into one of the top perimeter defenders at the next level. Brown has the lateral quickness to defend all perimeter players. He should be able to switch on point guards through power forwards with his size, strength and lateral movement. There is no comparison between the two on the defensive end. Muhammad isn't in the same ball park as Brown when it comes to lateral quickness. Muhammad struggled to turn his hips at UCLA on top of his lack of lateral quickness.

The final separating factor between Jaylen Brown and Shabazz Muhammad as NBA prospects is that Brown has no red flags at this point. By this time in Muhammad's freshman year, it had been discovered that Muhammad was a year older than he stated throughout high school. Muhammad's behavior on the court was questionable. He was often selfish with little regard for team success. Brown hasn't been in trouble off the court. On the court, it looks like he is buying into the team concept at California.

Jaylen Brown's game is going to translate well to the next level. He has to continue to improve his outside shooting and ball-handling. If he is able to become a 35% three-point shooter within the first couple years of his career, Brown could be an All-Star.

Early in his career, Brown should be able to excel in transition and on the glass. He should develop into a good defender relatively fast as well. Then if he continues to progress on the offensive end, he could be in consideration for an All-Star spot in his third or fourth year. There is a good chance that he reaches that type of level in his NBA career.  

Follow Trevor Andershock on Twitter @INBBallSource and @ScoutNotesNBA